
Source: Bloomberg
The above screenshot is a picture of (mostly) developed market five year government debt yields (in blue). The Executive Summary is that unless you want to buy Greece with six-handle yields, you are looking at essentially zero yield - give or take a little bit - for the rest of the decade. The picture is even more dismal if you cut what little return you might make in half to pay the tax man. From a risk-return standpoint, you can presume you are making or losing your coupon almost daily if yields fluctuate by 10 basis points. Given the current extremely accommodative posture of most central banks, it is hard to see how this changes any time soon!
Consequently, the challenge for alpha generators is likely to only grow as all risk assets get priced closer to zero rates of return and managers with large stores of capital have to choose between moving farther afield to find returns or revert to the tried and true return generator - leverage - which is reaching all-time highs and is magic until the borrowing party stops. Time will tell whether this ends with a whimper of no returns over an extended period or a bang of massive repricing of assets....