A New Sheriff In Town
    by Rob Albright
    Thursday, November 10, 2016

    Hold the phone!  Tuesday's shocking election victory by Donald Trump has obviously made the markets think very differently about the future.  Specifically, until about 8PM Eastern on Tuesday night, the markets mostly considered a Hillary Clinton victory to be a foregone conclusion.  This would have likely entailed more of the same in terms of policy:  Slightly higher taxes, more easy monetary policy, similar or more regulation, price controls, and consequently slower growth (though her plans for infrastructure spending may have offset some of these drags). 

    Then everything changed.  First, the equity markets cratered at the shock of a Trump victory before Trump surrogates started talking up equities as well as the economic stimulus/growth the new President was going to unleash on Wednesday.   Though at least I am skeptical this will happen quite as promised, the markets seem to believe Trump will spend aggressively on infrastructure, deregulate, and press for more domestic production, as well as lowering taxes, and repatriating trillions of dollars 'trapped' overseas.  Apparently, this will create faster growth, higher rates and more profits (and jobs) which are all good for stocks.  It all sounds great, but seems like there are major fiscal reality obstacles between here and that nirvana.  One observer in our office concluded, "There is no guarantee it will work, but at least now the markets think there is someone that's going to be swinging!"  With yet more, and different, government stimulus believed to be on the way, it seems the asset inflation/levitation cycle will linger for a while longer, despite being at already lofty levels.  As with most things Trumpian, we will just have to wait and see!

    comments powered by Disqus

    Investment Insights